Is Genocide Predictable? Researchers Say Absolutely

21 Dec 2018

Genocide is predictable. On this, researchers and experts agree. What data should be examined to be able to make a prediction is however subject to debate. The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum looks at national statistics - such as type of government, infant mortality rates and changes to the gross domestic product. Greg Stanton of the George Mason University, on the other hand argues that this is not enough, as one should closely examine events. Stanton’s genocide prediction model is based on ten stages of genocide, which begins with classifying people into distinct groups and continues with dehumanization, persecution and – finally – denial.